Scenario plan tester

Overview

See how your long-term plans stand up to the challenges of possible futures. Test your plans against any of our 6 future scenarios to refine and 'future-proof' them.

Benefits

An easy way to check that your plans are sound by road testing them against a variety of situations. If they can stand up to this range of possibilities, you can be confident they will work under a wide range of circumstances. Our 6 scenarios are robust, evidence-based futures based on extensive research.

Preparation

• Prepare the first two columns of the worksheet to help the group focus on what you want to test.
• Print out enough worksheets for all participants.
• If possible, provide advance reviews of the 6 future scenarios.

Materials

• Per group - 6 future scenarios.
• 6 worksheets (one sheet per scenario).
• Pens.

What you do

• In small groups, read the scenarios.
• If you have enough groups, you can divide this task.
• Discuss the features of the plans/strategy that you are testing.
• Discuss as a group how the plans would fare in each of the different scenarios. Would your plans leave you unprepared?
• Write down the challenges each scenario presents to your plans.
• Rate how likely the problem is to occur, using this scoring system.

5 = very likely 4 = less likely 3 = neutral 2 = unlikely 1 = very unlikely.

Rate the severity of the challenge if it occurs

5 = critical 4 = very severe 3 = quite severe 2 = not very severe 1 = minor impact 0 = no impact.

Total the two ratings.

Work through the prioritised list, suggesting how current plans might be refined to make them more robust.

Summarise your suggested changes, sharing with the wider group if you have broken into smaller groups.

Create an agreed action plan and assign action owners to take each action forwards.

Top tips for your group activities

• Be well prepared
• Consider changing your usual meeting environment
• Know what you want to come away with before you start
• Break the ice with a warm up
• Give people enough time to get into and do the activities
• Keep people engaged and motivated
• Encourage and proactively get input from everyone
• Think about how your going to capture the notes
• Use flip charts, coloured post its, coloured pens, paper, stickers
• If possible use a flexible and effective facilitator

Activity worksheet download